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  • Is Demonetization Responsible for Lower GDP Growth Rate?

    September 04, 2017


    Since India’s April-June 2017 (Q1FY18) numbers are printed below market expectations, there has been some discussions whether demonetization is responsible for the low GDP print.


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  • Analyzing The GDP Numbers

    September 01, 2017


    The Indian GDP growth rate came significantly below expectation at 5.7% in the Q1FY18 (Apr-June 2017).

    The table below shows the contribution to the GDP growth by type of expenditure.


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  • India’s coming fiscal contraction – effect on growth and inflation

    August 09, 2017


    We estimate Central Fiscal Deficit for April-June 2017 quarter for India to be at approximately 10.75% of the GDP of that quarter. This is because of planned increase in capital expenditure by the central government in that quarter. To maintain the preannounced target of 3.20% of GDP for fiscal deficit for the year April 2017 till March 2018, the deficit for the nine-month period July 2017 till March 2018 should not significantly exceed 0.75% of GDP of that period.


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  • Does RBI need to revise its models?

    August 7, 2017


    The low inflation print in recent months has raised some important methodological questions. RBI relies heavily on the internal models that it has developed for its inflation forecast and hence for making interest rate decisions.


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  • India Deflation: Strategic, Tactical and Operational Options for RBI

    July 26, 2017


    In one of my previous write ups, I sketched the most likely scenario of India facing deflation pretty soon. In this write up, I will describe various responses that RBI should have to have for this emerging black swan event. (Black Swan as far as markets and policy makers are concerned.)


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  • Why Will AI Emerge Spontaneously?

    July 24, 2017


    In response to one of my previous blogs, some readers privately raised questions as to why I think AI will emerge spontaneously. Here is my detailed reasoning.


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  • India Heading Towards Deflation

    July 21, 2017


    The latest reading of Indian CPI came in at 1.54% for June 2017. This is the first time the inflation has breached RBI band of 2% to 6%. I am sure there would be a lot of soul searching going on at offices of many authorities as to what it means.


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  • Excessive Monetary Tightening in India as compared to OECD

    July 17, 2017


    In this note we will see how behavior of RBI in recent years is proving a relative impediment to economic growth.


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  • Emergence of Singularity: Building Anti Fragile Human Race

    July 17, 2017


    Nearly all futurists, who think about technology, agree that singularity is between half a generation to two generations away from today. Most of them, except notably Ray Kurtzweil, think that a superintelligent AI will be as indifferent to the needs and aspirations of humans just the way we humans are indifferent to those of ants.


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  • Artificial Intelligence, Heuristics and Biomimicry

    May 29, 2017


    Across the world, AI is the talk of town for last two years or so. This area of enquiry is making significant strides day by day, covering more and more ground, and will catch up with animal level intelligence sooner rather than later.


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  • Incentive Structure for building Artificial Intelligence with a sense of morality

    April 17, 2017


    Recently, our Head of Talent Management pointed out to me that AI applications, mainly chatbots, seem carry the same biases that humans display.


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  • Towards Collective Consciousness of Human Race

    April 2, 2017


    In my blog report published on the website of Decimal Point Analytics on 14th March 2011, I had posited that Jasmine Revolution (Arab Spring) is indicative of slow emergence of collective human consciousness, enabled by the Internet, while the problems in the Eurozone currency area at that time are indicative of the fact that our collective consciousness is not at the same level as that of a colony of honeybee.


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