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A Cautionary Tale for Bitcoin Maximalists

Jun 18, 2021

Bitcoin, if considered as a currency, has highly deflationary properties. Many celebrate the deflationary property as a feature. I show here, based on a painstaking data collection, that it is bug. Deflation is a bug for poor countries. Deflation is a bug for poor people. Deflation, at the end of it, is a feature for rich industrialists.

Guiding Policymaking through the Fog of Covid19 induced Lockdowns

Sep 01, 2020

Recently, Indian GDP for June 2020 Quarter printed -23.9% growth. Interestingly, just a few weeks before this print, RBI MPC announced that it was holding rates steady because CPI inflation was at 6.93%, outside the target range of 2% to 6%.

Private Equity - Navigating the Global Pandemic Environment

Apr 30, 2020

The current COVID-19 crisis is causing economic as well as social disruptions, and businesses are no exception. Though central banks worldwide have announced various multi-billion-dollar stimulus packages to contain the economic impact, it has still failed to boost investor confidence.

Forging Ahead in Troubled Times

Apr 14, 2020

The world is in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic trying to control the social and financial fallout. The already struggling financial markets have nose-dived due to the world economy coming to a grinding halt. Social distancing is being practiced across the world to flatten the infection curve and give the government and administration a fighting chance

Laplace’s Demon and Limits to Central Banks’ Ability to Stabilize Economy

Apr 11, 2020

In last three weeks, the major central banks in the world have gone in overdrive to stabilize the markets.

Iatrogenesis of Social Distancing: Thoughts on Flaws in Deeper Structure of Society.

Mar 25, 2020

As the global economy stares at rapid descent into possibly worst depression ever recorded, US President Trump has been voicing concerns on iatrogenesis of the preventive measure of social distancing on the US economy. To think of iatrogenesis of the preventive measures is unthinkable for many, however it is to useful debate this point, but only in the wider context of structure of our society, as discussed below.

Beginning of ETF Shock

Mar 23, 2020

Last Monday I wrote about the issues that ETFs will face due to the disruptions to real economy. I did not expect the problems to surface at the short-end of ETFs and so fast.

Extreme Funding Stress in Dollar Market

Mar 18, 2020

One measure of funding stress in dollar markets is how much liquidity is demanded by banks from NY Fed. The chart below shows the net liquidity demand / supply managed by NY Fed from 7<sup>th</sup> July 2000 till 17<sup>th</sup> March 2020.

COVID-19 and folly of ETFs

Mar 17, 2020

Let me set the tone first by briefly describing the folly of the 2004-09 Great Financial Crisis. It was believed, without stress test, that by combining a seemingly uncorrelated junk grade loans into a pool, some pixie dust magic will convert the pool of such loans into highly coveted low risk investment grade pool.

Customized, Optimized and Enhanced research operations

Mar 06, 2020

The Indian banking industry is undergoing a radical change driven by intense competition from new entrants in the industry, continuously evolving regulatory environment and the changing business models. Technological advancements and innovations have further altered the business landscape for all financial institutions, whether banking or non-banking.

From Bank of United States to Yes Bank: Why Bank Stocks should be ineligible as loan security

Oct 31, 2019

In December of 1930 Bank of United States (BOUS), based primarily in the city of New York failed. It was the first bank failure in the USA during the great depression which started in Oct 1929.

Do we really need trade wars to shrink international trade-flows in Physical Goods?

Mar 19, 2018

In the recent weeks the headlines are screaming about the impending trade wars, the expected shrinkage in global trade and its impact on the overall welfare of the humankind.

Is Demonetization Responsible for Lower GDP Growth Rate?

Sep 04, 2017

Since India’s April-June 2017 (Q1FY18) numbers are printed below market expectations, there has been some discussions whether demonetization is responsible for the low GDP print.

Analyzing The GDP numbers

Sep 01, 2017

The Indian GDP rate came significantly below expectations at 5.7% in the Q1FY18 (Apr-June 2017) The Table below shows the contribution to the GDP growth by type of expenditure.

India’s coming fiscal contraction – effect on growth and inflation

Aug 09, 2017

We estimate Central Fiscal Deficit for April-June 2017 quarter for India to be at approximately 10.75% of the GDP of that quarter. This is because of planned increase in capital expenditure by the central government in that quarter. To maintain the preannounced target of 3.20% of GDP for fiscal deficit for the year April 2017 till March 2018, the deficit for the nine-month period July 2017 till March 2018 should not significantly exceed 0.75% of GDP of that period.

Does RBI need to revise its models?

Aug 07, 2017

The low inflation print in recent months has raised some important methodological questions. RBI relies heavily on the internal models that it has developed for its inflation forecast and hence for making interest rate decisions.

India Deflation: Strategic, Tactical and Operational Options for RBI

Jul 26, 2017

In one of my previous write ups, I sketched the most likely scenario of India facing deflation pretty soon. In this write up, I will describe various responses that RBI should have to have for this emerging black swan event. (Black Swan as far as markets and policy makers are concerned.

Why Will AI Emerge Spontaneously?

Jul 24, 2017

In response to one of my previous blogs, some readers privately raised questions as to why I think AI will emerge spontaneously. Here is my detailed reasoning.

India Heading Towards Deflation

Jul 21, 2017

The latest reading of Indian CPI came in at 1.54% for June 2017. This is the first time the inflation has breached RBI band of 2% to 6%. I am sure there would be a lot of soul searching going on at offices of many authorities as to what it means.

Emergence of Singularity: Building Anti Fragile Human Race

Jul 17, 2017

Nearly all futurists, who think about technology, agree that singularity is between half a generation to two generations away from today. Most of them, except notably Ray Kurtzweil, think that a superintelligent AI will be as indifferent to the needs and aspirations of humans just the way we humans are indifferent to those of ants.

Excessive Monetary Tightening in India as compared to OECD

Jul 17, 2017

In this note we will see how behavior of RBI in recent years is proving a relative impediment to economic growth.

The Fallacy of the Repugnant Paradox

Jul 10, 2017

Recently, I became aware of a philosophical topic “The Repugnant Paradox” via an excellent YouTube Video "http://bit.ly/2tWEgf5" . A more technical description of the paradox can be found at

Artificial Intelligence, Heuristics and Biomimicry

May 29, 2017

Across the world, AI is the talk of town for last two years or so. This area of enquiry is making significant strides day by day, covering more and more ground, and will catch up with animal level intelligence sooner rather than later.

Incentive Structure for building Artificial Intelligence with a sense of morality

Apr 17, 2017

Recently, our Head of Talent Management pointed out to me that AI applications, mainly chatbots, seem carry the same biases that humans display.

Towards Collective Consciousness of Human Race

Apr 02, 2017

In my blog report published on the website of Decimal Point Analytics on 14th March 2011, I had posited that Jasmine Revolution (Arab Spring) is indicative of slow emergence of collective human consciousness, enabled by the Internet, while the problems in the Eurozone currency area at that time are indicative of the fact that our collective consciousness is not at the same level as that of a colony of honeybee.

Do we really need trade wars to shrink international trade-flows in Physical Goods?

Mar 19, 2017

In the recent weeks the headlines are screaming about the impending trade wars, the expected shrinkage in global trade and its impact on the overall welfare of the humankind.

Decimal Blog

Our world view and its interpretations, we talk mostly about Finance and Technology!

A Cautionary Tale for Bitcoin Maximalists

Jun 18, 2021

Guiding Policymaking through the Fog of Covid19 induced Lockdowns

Sep 01, 2020

Private Equity - Navigating the Global Pandemic Environment

Apr 30, 2020

Forging Ahead in Troubled Times

Apr 14, 2020

Laplace’s Demon and Limits to Central Banks’ Ability to Stabilize Economy

Apr 11, 2020

Iatrogenesis of Social Distancing: Thoughts on Flaws in Deeper Structure of Society.

Mar 25, 2020

Beginning of ETF Shock

Mar 23, 2020

Extreme Funding Stress in Dollar Market

Mar 18, 2020

COVID-19 and folly of ETFs

Mar 17, 2020

Customized, Optimized and Enhanced research operations

Mar 06, 2020

From Bank of United States to Yes Bank: Why Bank Stocks should be ineligible as loan security

Oct 31, 2019

Do we really need trade wars to shrink international trade-flows in Physical Goods?

Mar 19, 2018

Is Demonetization Responsible for Lower GDP Growth Rate?

Sep 04, 2017

Analyzing The GDP numbers

Sep 01, 2017

India’s coming fiscal contraction – effect on growth and inflation

Aug 09, 2017

Does RBI need to revise its models?

Aug 07, 2017

India Deflation: Strategic, Tactical and Operational Options for RBI

Jul 26, 2017

Why Will AI Emerge Spontaneously?

Jul 24, 2017

India Heading Towards Deflation

Jul 21, 2017

Emergence of Singularity: Building Anti Fragile Human Race

Jul 17, 2017

Excessive Monetary Tightening in India as compared to OECD

Jul 17, 2017

The Fallacy of the Repugnant Paradox

Jul 10, 2017

Artificial Intelligence, Heuristics and Biomimicry

May 29, 2017

Incentive Structure for building Artificial Intelligence with a sense of morality

Apr 17, 2017

Towards Collective Consciousness of Human Race

Apr 02, 2017

Do we really need trade wars to shrink international trade-flows in Physical Goods?

Mar 19, 2017

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